| Citation: | LI Yuanyao，WANG Zhehan，JU Le，et al. Continuous probability threshold for rainfall-type landslides in Zigui County, Hubei Province[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology，2025，44（6）：1-13 doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20250352
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Determining rainfall thresholds is a crucial foundation for landslide hazard assessments and meteorological risk early warnings.
To address the limitations of low spatial resolution and poor accuracy in distinguishing rainfall processes of traditional critical rainfall thresholds,
this study takes Zigui County, Hubei Province as a case. Based on data from 472 landslides and 58 rainfall stations, an effective rainfall-duration (
The results indicate: ① Landslides in the region are primarily small to medium-sized shallow-deposited layer landslides, with a significant positive correlation between rainfall and landslides occurrences, with 86.63% of landslides occurring during the rainy season; ②The nonlinear fitting equation for the continuous probability threshold is $ 1/P=1+{{\mathrm{e}}}^{2.0792+0.24156\times D-0.04072\times E} $, with a fitting degree of
The continuous probability threshold demonstrates superior accuracy in landslide disaster warning and spatial resolution for the study area, providing a scientific theoretical reference for local governments to conduct landslide risk warnings.
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