| Citation: | LUO Sheng，HUANG Zhengyang，LI Zheng. Earthquake nucleation simulation：A case study of the 2023 MW 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Turkey[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology，2025，44（6）：1-13 doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20250104
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The preferential rupture of splay faults in continental transform fault systems during strike-slip earthquakes remains a widely debated issue. Deciphering the underlying mechanism is crucial for advancing the understanding of earthquake physics and improving seismic hazard assessment.
This study introduces a novel finite element framework to simulate fault nucleation, which identifies nucleation zones based on the interaction between background tectonic stress and fault geometry. Within this framework, faults are treated as frictional contact between two blocks. Stress-strain conditions derived from quasi-static simulations serve as initial conditions for dynamic rupture simulations, with the abrupt transition from static to dynamic friction modeled. The region of maximum slip obtained in the first step of the dynamic simulation corresponds to the area of minimum static friction in the quasi-static model, thereby defining the earthquake nucleation zone. Simultaneously, we investigate the key factors impacting the nucleation site of the 2023
The results show the high accuracy of the proposed earthquake nucleation simulation method and reveal that the mechanical coupling between the splay Nurdağı Fault (NF) and the main fault exhibits nonlinear characteristics, influenced by variations in the geometric structure of the NF. The pronounced deflection of the NF, especially with depth, significantly accelerates earthquake nucleation and leads to the shift of the nucleation location to the NF.
This study address as the challenge of high degrees of freedom in finite element models when balancing static rock pressure (pre-stress) and gravitational effects, thereby improving the accuracy of nucleation simulation. Furthermore, our physics-based simulation successfully reproduces the coseismic slip pattern derived from kinematic finite fault inversion. This study provides a robust explanation for why large strike-slip earthquakes can nucleate on splay faults.
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