| Citation: | WANG Qin，GONG Huili，TIAN Yu，et al. Evolution characteristics of layered subsidence in Hengshui City and its response mechanism to environmental factors[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology，2025，44（6）：1-12 doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20240022
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Affected by climate change and human activities, groundwater resources in the Hengshui area have been over exploited year-round, which directly leads to severe ground subsidence, becoming one of the main geological disasters in this region.
Based on the accumulated settlement data of the main urban area of Hengshui City from January 2009 to December 2022, obtained from layered mark monitoring, this study investigates the ground subsidence mechanism of three compression layers (F1, F2, F3 layers from shallow to deep). First, the Gompertz model was used to fit the cumulative settlement of each compression layer. The first-order derivative of the fitting results was then calculated to determine the settlement rate of each layer. With 0.5 mm/month as the threshold, settlement initiation, rapid settlement rate growth, gradual settlement rate decline, and settlement stabilization of each layer are identified. The zero growth (ZG) model is then employed to divide the settlement of each layer into irreversible settlement sequence (GRC) and reversible rebound sequence (SWD), and the fluctuation characteristics of settlement and rebound periods are analyzed. Finally, the linear mixed model (LMM) is applied to analyze the contribution of environmental factors such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, shallow groundwater level, and deep groundwater level to the compression settlement (GRC_rate) during each layer's settlement period.
The results show that: ①The cumulative settlement fitting curves of each layers exhibit an "S" shape, and the settlement rate curves show a single-peak pattern, with a "slow-fast-slow" trend. The main settlement period start time, end time, cumulative settlement, and settlement rate of each layer differ; ② In terms of cumulative settlement and monthly settlement increment amplitude, F3 layer > F2 layer > F1 layer. In terms of rebound amplitude, F1 layer > F2 and F3 layers; ③ Evapotranspiration and shallow groundwater level contribute the most to the compression settlement of F1 and F2 layers, while shallow groundwater level and deep groundwater level are the primary contributors to the compression settlement of F3 layer.
The research results provide a reference for the prevention and control of land subsidence.
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