Genetic Context and Triggering Thresholds of Rainfall-Induced Landslides During the July 8 Extreme Rainfall Event in Northeastern Chongqing

ZHANG Zhongyuan; LI Zhifei; LUO Xiaolong; DONG Yuanfeng; DENG Jiulin; HU Mingjun; LI Wei; YU Shu; LI Haiyang; CHEN Pengfei

doi:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20250323

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ZHANG Zhongyuan，LI Zhifei，LUO Xiaolong，et al. Genetic Context and Triggering Thresholds of Rainfall-Induced Landslides During the July 8 Extreme Rainfall Event in Northeastern Chongqing[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology，2026，45（0）：1-12 doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20250323

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Genetic Context and Triggering Thresholds of Rainfall-Induced Landslides During the July 8 Extreme Rainfall Event in Northeastern Chongqing

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20250323

Chongqing 208 Geological Environment Research Institute Co., Ltd., Chongqing 400711, China
107 Geological Team, Chongqing Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources Exploration and Development, Chongqing 401120, China

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Author Bio:
E-mail：kfzzzy@163.com
Corresponding author: E-mail：121111529@qq.com
Received Date: 10 Jul 2025
Accepted Date: 21 Oct 2025
Rev Recd Date: 22 Aug 2025

Available Online: 29 Oct 2025

Abstract

Abstract

Objective
In recent years, extreme rainfall-induced landslide disasters have occurred frequently. Revealing the genetic context of rainfall-triggered landslides and determining rainfall thresholds are critical components of meteorological risk early warning for geological hazards. However, existing regional studies lack quantitative analysis of landslide lag response and comparative evaluation of multiple rainfall threshold models, which restricts the precision of local early warning systems.
Methods
This study takes the July 8, 2024, extreme rainfall-induced landslide event in northeastern Chongqing as an example. Using geographic information systems and statistical analysis methods, we conducted quantitative analyses of the spatial coupling relationship between landslide distribution and geo-environmental factors, and the lagging response characteristics of landslides to sequential rainfall processes, based on 71 valid landslide samples after eliminating records with missing rainfall data. I-D, E-D, and E-I rainfall threshold models were established, and the accuracy of these three thresholds was compared using a confusion matrix.
Results
Spatially, landslides were significantly concentrated on north-facing slopes with elevations below 1000 m and gradients of 10°–30°, predominantly occurring in soft rock strata (Rock Groups Ⅱ1 and Ⅱ2) and within 500–800 m of folds and river networks. Temporally, landslide occurrence was positively correlated with rainfall processes, showing a clear lag effect, peaking on the seventh day of continuous heavy rainfall. The I-D model was found to be more suitable as a rainfall threshold line for the study area compared to the E-D and E-I models. Quantitative evaluation via confusion matrix shows that the I-D model under 50% landslide occurrence probability achieves an accuracy of 0.56 and a false alarm rate of 0.34, presenting the optimal overall performance among the three models.
Conclusion
Landslide disasters in northeastern Chongqing result from the coupling of specific geological conditions and extreme rainfall processes. The established I-D threshold can provide a scientific basis for meteorological risk early warning of regional geological hazards. However, future efforts should focus on increasing sample size and data precision to enhance model accuracy and short-term nowcasting capabilities.
- rainfall-induced landslide,
- rainfall threshold,
- I-D threshold model,
- landslide lag effect,
- meteorological warning,
- northeastern Chongqing

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References

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Genetic Context and Triggering Thresholds of Rainfall-Induced Landslides During the July 8 Extreme Rainfall Event in Northeastern Chongqing

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Genetic Context and Triggering Thresholds of Rainfall-Induced Landslides During the July 8 Extreme Rainfall Event in Northeastern Chongqing

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