Study on the Empirical Prediction Model for the Runout Distance of Rainfall-Induced Group-occurring Shallow Soil Landslides

HUANG Ruijian; FENG Wenkai; LI Shuangquan; LIU Kan; TANG Xuefeng; GUO Chaoxu; YI Xiaoyu

doi:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20240364

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HUANG Ruijian，FENG Wenkai，LI Shuangquan，et al. Study on the Empirical Prediction Model for the Runout Distance of Rainfall-Induced Group-occurring Shallow Soil Landslides[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology，2025，44（3）：1-13 doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20240364

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Study on the Empirical Prediction Model for the Runout Distance of Rainfall-Induced Group-occurring Shallow Soil Landslides

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20240364

1.
State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention of Hill Mountains of Ministry of Nature Resources, Fuzhou 350002, China

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Author Bio:
E-mail：1550392749@qq.com
Corresponding author: E-mail：fengwenkai@cdut.cn
Received Date: 28 Jun 2024
Accepted Date: 14 Feb 2025
Rev Recd Date: 06 Jan 2025

Available Online: 24 Apr 2025

Abstract

Abstract

Objective
Rainfall-induced group-occurring shallow soil landslides have the characteristics of strong and sudden occurrence and high risk. It is of great significance to build a runout distance prediction model for landslide risk prevention and control.
Methods
This study takes the "5.27" group-occurring landslide event in Wuping County, Fujian Province as the research object, and obtains 131 landslide characteristic data based on pre-disaster and post-disaster remote sensing images, digital elevation model, drone 3D model and field investigation. According to the location of the slip-out point and topographic characteristics, the landslides are divided into the foot slip-out type, the middle slope slip-out type and the cut slope slip-out type. The main factors affecting the runout distance of group-occurring shallow soil landslides were determined by correlation analysis, and the optimal prediction model for the runout distance of three types of landslides was established using stepwise nonlinear regression analysis.
Results
Correlation analysis shows that the height of the sliding source area is the main influencing factor of the runout distance of rainfall-induced group-occurring shallow soil landslides. The established optimal predictive models exhibited a small residual sum of squares (RSS) and an adjusted R² value greater than 0.9, indicating high reliability and precision. Model validation showed that the relative errors between the predicted and actual values were small, with maximum relative errors of 15.6%, 13.5%, and 12.4% for foot slip-out, middle slope slip-out, and cut slope slip-out types, respectively.
Conclusion
This study established a predictive model for the runout distance of rainfall-induced group-occurring shallow soil landslides based on statistical analysis, providing a scientific basis for landslide disaster prevention in similar regions. Although the models demonstrated high predictive accuracy across different types of landslides, the data were primarily sourced from a specific area, and further validation is needed for their applicability in other regions. Future research could consider increasing the sample size and influencing factors to further refine the models.
- group-occurring shallow soil landslides,
- runout distance,
- correlation analysis,
- stepwise nonlinear regression

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References

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Study on the Empirical Prediction Model for the Runout Distance of Rainfall-Induced Group-occurring Shallow Soil Landslides

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Study on the Empirical Prediction Model for the Runout Distance of Rainfall-Induced Group-occurring Shallow Soil Landslides

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