Bayesian inversion of geotechnical parameters and reliability updating for soil-rock composite foundation pits considering stratum strength differences
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摘要:
【目的】针对深基坑工程中岩土参数不确定性大、传统勘察数据难以准确反映开挖后土体真实状态的问题,提出了一种融合监测数据的岩土参数贝叶斯反演与可靠度动态更新方法。【方法】本文通过引入贝叶斯更新框架,结合马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)采样,利用基坑位移监测数据动态反演更新土层粘聚力与内摩擦角的概率分布,有效降低参数变异性。在此基础上,采用二次响应面代理模型替代高耗时的数值模拟,结合蒙特卡洛方法实现基坑可靠度的高效计算,形成“监测–参数反演–可靠度评价”的一体化分析流程,并以湖南省怀化市某基坑工程为例进行方法验证。【结果】结果表明:经监测数据反演后,土体参数的后验分布标准差显著减小,岩土参数不确定性降低;基于更新后参数计算的基坑失效概率不到10−6,远小于先验的1.9×10−5,可靠度指标明显提升。【结论】说明传统方法评估结果偏保守,该方法能更真实反映基坑实际安全状态,可为深基坑施工过程中的风险管控与安全评价提供有效手段。
Abstract:[Objective]In view of the significant uncertainty in geotechnical parameters in deep excavation engineering and the difficulty of traditional site investigation data in accurately reflecting the actual soil conditions after excavation, this study proposes a Bayesian inversion and dynamic reliability updating method for geotechnical parameters by integrating monitoring data. [Methods]By introducing a Bayesian updating framework combined with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, displacement monitoring data of the excavation are utilized to dynamically invert and update the probability distributions of soil cohesion and internal friction angle, effectively reducing parameter variability. On this basis, a quadratic response surface surrogate model is employed to replace time-consuming numerical simulations, and Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to efficiently evaluate excavation reliability, forming an integrated analysis framework of “monitoring-parameter inversion-reliability assessment.” A deep excavation project in Huaihua City, Hunan Province, is taken as a case study to validate the proposed method. [Results]The results indicate that, after incorporating monitoring data, the standard deviations of the posterior distributions of soil parameters are significantly reduced, leading to a notable decrease in geotechnical parameter uncertainty. The failure probability of the excavation calculated based on the updated parameters is less than 10−6, which is much lower than the prior value of 1.9×10−5, and the reliability index is significantly improved, demonstrating that the excavation is in a favorable safety condition. [Conclusion]The proposed method can more realistically reflect the actual safety state of deep excavations and provides an effective tool for risk management and safety assessment during excavation construction.
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