Integrating Ensemble Machine Learning and Negative Sample Sampling Strategy for Susceptibility Assessment of Rainfall-induced Clustered Landslides
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摘要:
我国南方丘陵山地降雨群发滑坡危害严重,滑坡易发性评价是防灾减灾核心支撑,而评价模型与负样本选取的科学性直接制约评价精度。以2023年10月广东信宜降雨群发滑坡为研究背景,旨在探究不同负样本采样方法与机器学习模型对评价精度的影响。通过遥感影像解译获取滑坡正样本,构建因子约束、缓冲区随机、无监督聚类三种负样本集,结合集成机器学习建模开展评价。集成机器学习模型本身具备较高基础精度,且负样本方法对精度影响显著,无监督聚类采样对应的模型精度最优,缓冲区随机采样次之,低坡度约束采样精度最低。无监督聚类负样本采样方法能够挖掘区域背景特点,与集成机器学习结合可进一步提升评价精度,可为我国南方丘陵山地降雨群发滑坡易发性评价提供样本选取及模型构建参考。
Abstract:
Rainfall-induced clustered landslides pose severe hazards in the hilly and mountainous regions of southern China. Landslide susceptibility assessment serves as a pivotal support for disaster prevention and reduction; however, its accuracy is directly constrained by the scientific rationality of evaluation models and the selection of negative samples. Taking the rainfall-induced clustered landslides in Xinyi, Guangdong Province in October 2023 as the research background, this study aims to explore the impacts of different negative sample sampling strategies and machine learning models on assessment accuracy. Landslide positive samples were acquired via remote sensing image interpretation, and three types of negative sample datasets were constructed based on factor constraints (low slope), buffer random sampling, and unsupervised clustering. Subsequently, susceptibility assessments were conducted by integrating these datasets with ensemble machine learning modeling. The results indicate that while ensemble machine learning models inherently possess high baseline accuracy, the negative sampling method significantly influences the final precision. Specifically, the model utilizing unsupervised clustering sampling achieved the optimal accuracy, followed by buffer random sampling, whereas the low-slope constraint sampling yielded the lowest accuracy. The unsupervised clustering negative sample sampling method is well-adapted to the Xinyi study area, and its combination with ensemble machine learning can further enhance assessment accuracy. This study provides valuable references for sample selection and model construction in the susceptibility assessment of rainfall-induced clustered landslides in the hilly and mountainous regions of southern China.
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