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基于文献计量的地质灾害链研究进展与趋势分析

何欣 栗帅 王佳 朱鸿鹄

何欣,栗帅,王佳,等. 基于文献计量的地质灾害链研究进展与趋势分析[J]. 地质科技通报,2026,45(3):1-16 doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20250488
引用本文: 何欣,栗帅,王佳,等. 基于文献计量的地质灾害链研究进展与趋势分析[J]. 地质科技通报,2026,45(3):1-16 doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20250488
HE Xin,LI Shuai,WANG Jia,et al. Research progress and trend analysis of geological disaster chain based on bibliometrics[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology,2026,45(3):1-16 doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20250488
Citation: HE Xin,LI Shuai,WANG Jia,et al. Research progress and trend analysis of geological disaster chain based on bibliometrics[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology,2026,45(3):1-16 doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20250488

基于文献计量的地质灾害链研究进展与趋势分析

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20250488
基金项目: 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDB1390000);国家科技重大专项(2024ZD1000500);四川省科技计划资助项目(2024NSFSC0068);国家自然科学基金面上项目(42471094);山地自然灾害与工程安全重点实验室(中国科学院)自助部署项目(IMHE-ZYTS-01);地质灾害防治与地质环境保护全国重点实验室开放基金资助项目(SKLGP2024K015)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    何欣:E-mail:hexin@imde.ac.cn

    通讯作者:

    E-mail:zhh@nju.edu.cn

Research progress and trend analysis of geological disaster chain based on bibliometrics

More Information
  • 摘要:

    全球气候变化背景下,地质灾害链问题日益严峻,然而目前尚缺乏对该领域发展的全面、系统性量化梳理。因此,有必要对已有文献进行梳理,以厘清这一新形势下的研究现状。基于Web of Science核心合集1989—2024年的784篇文献,运用文献计量学方法,构建了“发文趋势−国家/机构合作−期刊影响力−研究主题”四维分析框架。研究发现:(1)研究历程呈现“萌芽−发展−快速增长”三阶段跃迁,遵循“技术赋能−案例验证”复合驱动模式,即重大灾害提供实证场景,而技术进步(如LiDAR、InSAR、AI)决定研究深度与时机。(2)中国在该领域占据主导地位(发文449篇),中国科学院为核心机构,国际合作形成以中、美、英为核心的多中心网络。(3)《Natural Hazards》、《Landslides》和《Engineering Geology》构成最具影响力的核心期刊群。(4)研究范式实现了从单一灾种分析到多灾种耦合、从静态评估到动态过程模拟、从经验描述到“数据驱动+物理约束”智能预测的深刻转变。未来研究应重点聚焦两大方向:一是发展数据与物理融合的混合智能、全链条观测体系与数字孪生平台等方法技术创新;二是深化震后长时效链、高寒冻土区链、火−灾链、喀斯特链及工程扰动链等典型区域链的机理与风险评估研究。本研究系统揭示了地质灾害链领域的发展脉络与范式转型,为深入理解地质灾害链学科发展提供了有力支撑。

     

  • 图 1  典型地质灾害链的演化机制与案例图示

    Figure 1.  Evolution mechanisms and illustrative cases of typical geological disaster chains

    图 2  年度与累计发文量变化趋势

    Figure 2.  Trends in annual and cumulative publications

    图 3  各国地质灾害链研究发文量对比(前10位)

    Figure 3.  Comparison of publications on geological hazard chains by country (top 10)

    图 4  全球地质灾害链研究国际合作网络和弦图(前15名)

    外圈扇形面积代表各国发文量;内圈连接弦的粗细与颜色深度表征双边合作强度

    Figure 4.  Global International Collaboration Network in Geological Disaster Chain Research: A Chord Diagram (Top 15 Countries)

    图 5  研究机构合作网络

    节点大小代表机构发文量;连线粗细表征合作强度

    Figure 5.  Research institution collaboration network

    图 6  地质灾害链研究的跨学科发文趋势

    Figure 6.  Interdisciplinary publication trends in geological hazard chain research

    图 7  地质灾害链研究核心期刊累计发文量趋势(1989—2024)

    Figure 7.  Cumulative publication trends of core journals in geological hazard chain research (1989—2024)

    图 8  地质灾害链研究关键词共现网络

    节点大小代表词频;连线粗细表征共现强度;聚类分布则反映不同的研究方向

    Figure 8.  Keyword co-occurrence network in geological hazard chain research

    图 9  关键词演化趋势图

    蓝色横线表示各关键词的活跃周期;圆点为各关键词出现的中位年份,点的大小反映该关键词在整个时间段内的总频次

    Figure 9.  Keyword evolution trend diagram

    表  1  总被引频次排名前10的期刊

    Table  1.   Top 10 journals by total citations

    期刊 总被引
    次数/次
    h
    指数
    m
    指数
    《Natural Hazards》 2517 20 0.9
    《Landslides》 2177 24 1.1
    《Geomorphology》 1672 17 0.5
    《Engineering Geology》 1607 20 0.9
    《Earth-Science Reviews》 1135 4 0.2
    《Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences》 732 11 0.7
    《Journal of Mountain Science》 483 13 0.9
    《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》 350 1 0.1
    《International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction》 345 7 0.8
    《Journal of Hydrology》 299 8 0.5
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  典型地质环境下的灾害链类型与特征

    Table  2.   Types and characteristics of disaster chains in typical geological environments

    地质环境 灾害链类型 主要启动机制 关键演化路径 代表性区域
    高山峡谷区 地震−滑坡−堰塞湖−溃决洪水链 地震动荷载触发滑坡 地震→大规模滑坡→堵塞河道形成堰塞湖→
    湖水位上升→坝体溃决→特大洪水
    青藏高原东缘
    黄土高原 水−力耦合崩滑流链 降雨/灌溉入渗、工程扰动 水(力)扰动→黄土湿陷变形→地裂缝发育→
    崩塌/滑坡→碎屑流化→泥流
    黄土高原
    沿海地区 台风−暴雨−滑坡−泥石流链 台风带来极端降雨 台风→短时强降雨→坡体饱和/孔隙压力激增→
    滑坡启动→物源补给沟道→泥石流
    华南、东南沿海
    冰冻圈地区 冰崩-泥石流链 冰温升高、冰川退缩、冻融作用 冰崩/冰岩崩→冰体碎裂与融化→裹挟岩屑形成碎屑流→
    沿沟道高速远程运动
    喜马拉雅、天山
    红层地区 降雨-软化-失稳-致灾链 红层岩体遇水软化、强度剧降 降雨入渗→滑带/岩体软化、膨胀→抗剪强度衰减 →
    滑坡/变形失稳→造成灾害(如路基上拱、隧道底鼓)
    四川盆地、鄂西、华南
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2025-11-10
  • 录用日期:  2026-03-16
  • 修回日期:  2026-03-14
  • 网络出版日期:  2026-03-16

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