Research progress and trend analysis of geological disaster chain based on bibliometrics
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摘要:
全球气候变化背景下,地质灾害链问题日益严峻,然而目前尚缺乏对该领域发展的全面、系统性量化梳理。因此,有必要对已有文献进行梳理,以厘清这一新形势下的研究现状。基于Web of Science核心合集1989—2024年的784篇文献,运用文献计量学方法,构建了“发文趋势−国家/机构合作−期刊影响力−研究主题”四维分析框架。研究发现:(1)研究历程呈现“萌芽−发展−快速增长”三阶段跃迁,遵循“技术赋能−案例验证”复合驱动模式,即重大灾害提供实证场景,而技术进步(如LiDAR、InSAR、AI)决定研究深度与时机。(2)中国在该领域占据主导地位(发文449篇),中国科学院为核心机构,国际合作形成以中、美、英为核心的多中心网络。(3)《Natural Hazards》、《Landslides》和《Engineering Geology》构成最具影响力的核心期刊群。(4)研究范式实现了从单一灾种分析到多灾种耦合、从静态评估到动态过程模拟、从经验描述到“数据驱动+物理约束”智能预测的深刻转变。未来研究应重点聚焦两大方向:一是发展数据与物理融合的混合智能、全链条观测体系与数字孪生平台等方法技术创新;二是深化震后长时效链、高寒冻土区链、火−灾链、喀斯特链及工程扰动链等典型区域链的机理与风险评估研究。本研究系统揭示了地质灾害链领域的发展脉络与范式转型,为深入理解地质灾害链学科发展提供了有力支撑。
Abstract:[
Significance ] In the context of intensifying global climate change, the escalating threat posed by geological hazard chains necessitates a comprehensive and systematic quantitative review of this research domain. A thorough synthesis of existing literature is imperative to elucidate the current state of knowledge andto clarify the research landscape surrounding this emerging and complex challenge. [Progress ] Utilizing bibliometric methodologies, this study analyzes 784 relevant publications indexed in the Web of Science Core Collection from 1989 to 2024. It constructs a four-dimensional analytical framework that systematically examines publication trends, collaborative networks among countries and institutions, the influence of academic journals, and the evolution of research themes. [Conclusions and Prospects ] The principal findings are summarized as follows: (1) The evolution of research exhibits a distinct three-phase trajectory: a germination phase (1989—2000), a development phase (2001—2012), and a phase of rapid growth (2013—2024). This progression adheres to a "technology empowerment–case validation" composite driving model, wherein major catastrophic events provide critical empirical scenarios, while breakthroughs in observational and predictive technologies—such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), and Artificial Intelligence (AI)—fundamentally determine the depth, scope, and timing of investigative advances. (2) China dominates the research output in this field, contributing 449 publications, which is approximately nine timesthat of the second-ranked United States. The Chinese Academy of Sciences emerges as the central and most prolific institution. Analysis of international co-authorship reveals a multi-polar collaborative network with China, the United States, and the United Kingdom as its primary hubs. (3) The journalsLandslides ,Natural Hazards , andEngineering Geology form the core cluster exerting the greatest academic influence within the discipline, as evidenced by metrics such asthe h-index and citation impact. (4) A profound paradigm shift is evident: research has transitioned from analyzing isolated hazards to investigating multi-hazard couplings; from conducting static susceptibility assessments to performing dynamic process simulations of chain evolution; and from relying on empirical description to developing "data-driven + physics-constrained" intelligent prediction models. Looking forward, future research endeavors should prioritize two key avenues: firstly, the innovation and enhancement of research methodologies and technologies, including the development of hybrid intelligent systems that integrate data-driven approaches with physical mechanisms, the establishment of integrated "full-chain" observation systems combining remote sensing and ground-based sensors, and the creation of digital twin platforms for scenario simulation and risk projection. Secondly, increased attention should be directed towards region-specific studies of particular hazard chain types and unique triggering contexts, such as long-term post-seismic chains (earthquake→landslide clusters→river damming→outburst floods→debris flows), hazard chains in alpine/permafrost regions (freeze-thaw cycles→thaw settlement/thermal erosion slumps→debris flows/outburst floods), interactions between wildfires and subsequent geological hazards (forest fire→soil hydrophobicity→erosion→shallow landslides→debris flows), chains in karst and dissolution-prone areas (collapse→ground fissures→landslides/subsidence→water contamination), and chains induced by reservoir operations or engineering activities (water level fluctuation→bank slope instability→surge waves→secondary disasters). The insights derived from this study furnish a robust empirical basis for a deeper comprehension of the developmental trajectory of the geological hazard chain discipline and offer strategic guidance for shaping future research priorities and fostering international collaborative initiatives.-
Key words:
- Geological Disaster Chain /
- Bibliometrics /
- Research Hotspots /
- VOSviewer
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表 1 总被引频次排名前10的期刊
Table 1. Top 10 journals by total citations
期刊 总被引
次数/次h
指数m
指数《Natural Hazards》 2517 20 0.9 《Landslides》 2177 24 1.1 《Geomorphology》 1672 17 0.5 《Engineering Geology》 1607 20 0.9 《Earth-Science Reviews》 1135 4 0.2 《Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences》 732 11 0.7 《Journal of Mountain Science》 483 13 0.9 《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》 350 1 0.1 《International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction》 345 7 0.8 《Journal of Hydrology》 299 8 0.5 表 2 典型地质环境下的灾害链类型与特征
Table 2. Types and characteristics of disaster chains in typical geological environments
地质环境 灾害链类型 主要启动机制 关键演化路径 代表性区域 高山峡谷区 地震−滑坡−堰塞湖−溃决洪水链 地震动荷载触发滑坡 地震→大规模滑坡→堵塞河道形成堰塞湖→
湖水位上升→坝体溃决→特大洪水青藏高原东缘 黄土高原 水−力耦合崩滑流链 降雨/灌溉入渗、工程扰动 水(力)扰动→黄土湿陷变形→地裂缝发育→
崩塌/滑坡→碎屑流化→泥流黄土高原 沿海地区 台风−暴雨−滑坡−泥石流链 台风带来极端降雨 台风→短时强降雨→坡体饱和/孔隙压力激增→
滑坡启动→物源补给沟道→泥石流华南、东南沿海 冰冻圈地区 冰崩-泥石流链 冰温升高、冰川退缩、冻融作用 冰崩/冰岩崩→冰体碎裂与融化→裹挟岩屑形成碎屑流→
沿沟道高速远程运动喜马拉雅、天山 红层地区 降雨-软化-失稳-致灾链 红层岩体遇水软化、强度剧降 降雨入渗→滑带/岩体软化、膨胀→抗剪强度衰减 →
滑坡/变形失稳→造成灾害(如路基上拱、隧道底鼓)四川盆地、鄂西、华南 -
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