Abstract:
The Yellow River Basin is a crucial ecological barrier and a key region for high-quality economic development in China. However, land subsidence poses a severe challenge to regional ecological security and sustainable development. This study focuses on Tianshui City's Qinzhou District, an important node city in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin. A total of 50 Sentinel-1A satellite images from June 2021 to June 2024 were utilized to monitor land subsidence using the Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR) technique. Based on this, spatial modeling of land subsidence was conducted by integrating 15 influencing factors across five categories. The performance of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) models was compared, and the optimal model was selected for a quantitative analysis of influencing factors. The results indicate that: (1) Land subsidence in Qinzhou District exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with a maximum annual subsidence rate of -14.9 mm/a and a maximum cumulative displacement of -76.91 mm. The central urban area shows an overall uplift trend, with a maximum annual uplift rate of 12.3 mm/a and a maximum uplift displacement of 36.81 mm. (2) Human activity factors, such as human footprint intensity and nighttime light index, significantly exacerbated land subsidence in the southeastern and southern urban areas. (3) Ecological factors, including NDVI and water conservation capacity, exhibited a notable inhibitory effect on subsidence, particularly in the well-protected northern and northwestern regions. (4) Groundwater storage depletion significantly contributed to subsidence in the southern and southeastern areas. (5) Topographic factors, such as slope and elevation, showed distinct spatial variations in their relationship with subsidence, with lower subsidence risk in high-altitude and mountainous areas and higher risk in plains. (6) Precipitation significantly mitigated subsidence, whereas temperature and evaporation intensified subsidence trends. This study provides scientific insights and practical guidance for ecological protection and high-quality development planning in the Yellow River Basin.