新铺下二台滑坡变形机制及中长期预报模型

武生辉; 仝德富; 苏爱军; 郭兵; 王健; 谭磊

doi:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0235

新铺下二台滑坡变形机制及中长期预报模型

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0235

武生辉^1a,,
仝德富^{1a, 1b},
苏爱军^1a, ,,
郭兵²,
王健²,
谭磊²

1a.
中国地质大学(武汉)湖北巴东地质灾害国家野外科学观测研究站, 武汉 430074
1b.
中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院, 武汉 430074
2.
重庆市地质灾害研究中心, 重庆 401147

基金项目:

中央高校基本科研业务专项资金资助项目 CUG1910491T07

重庆地质灾害研究中心项目 20C0023

详细信息

作者简介:
武生辉(1997-), 男, 现正攻读土木工程专业硕士学位, 主要从事滑坡稳定性及其机理的研究。E-mail: 2322968171@qq.com

通讯作者:
苏爱军(1962-), 男, 教授, 主要从事地质灾害防治的研究及教学工作。E-mail: aijun318@vip.sina.com

中图分类号: P642.22
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-12-13

Deformation mechanism and medium- and long-term landslide prediction model of Xinpu Xia'ertai landslide

Wu Shenghui^{1a
,},
Tong Defu^{1a, 1b},
Su Aijun^{1a
, ,},
Guo Bing²,
Wang Jian²,
Tan Lei²

1a.
Badong National Observation and Research Station of Geohazards, China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
1b.
Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
2.
Chongqing Geological Disaster Pvevention Center, Chongqing 401147, China

摘要

摘要:
以奉节新铺下二台滑坡为例, 基于GPS位移监测数据、裂缝数据、降雨量及库水位等多源数据, 总结分析了大型古滑坡的复活规律, 引入滑坡中长期预报模型, 实现了以季度或月份为时间单位的跨水文年滑坡位移预测, 并通过岩土体蠕变压缩模型, 验证了推移式滑坡后缘裂缝形成机理。结果表明: ①降雨是下二台滑坡变形的主导因素, 滑坡变形使得滑体产生裂缝并成为降雨入渗通道, 加剧了岩体破碎与软弱层软化, 降低了滑坡稳定性, 集中持续降雨可使滑坡失稳破坏; ②通过模型预测值与地表监测数据的比较, 将年降雨量作为滑坡中长期预报模型中的主控因素具有实际可操作性且有助于提高滑坡中长预报精度; ③推移式滑坡后缘裂缝由滑坡推移式位移和岩土体压缩形成, 引入蠕变压缩模型计算的裂缝宽度并和监测数据的比较说明, 蠕变压缩模型非常适合该类边坡, 同时应用岩土体蠕变压缩模型反推得到岩土体平均变形模量, 判断岩体破碎程度, 可以为滑坡稳定性分析及后续工程治理提供参考。
- 新铺下二台滑坡 /
- 变形机制 /
- 降雨驱动型滑坡 /
- 滑坡预测 /
- 蠕变压缩模型 /
- 拉裂缝
Abstract:
Due to the influence of reservoir water level, rainfall and geological conditions, the Three Gorges Reservoir area is a landslide hazard-prone area, and the landslide genesis mechanism and evolution process are also extremely complex.By taking the Xinpu Xia'ertai landslide as an example, this paper summarizes and analyses the resurgence law of large palaeo-landslides based on multiple sources of data, such as GPS displacement monitoring data, fracture data, rainfall and reservoir water level, and through a geotechnical creep compression model. The paper also verifies the mechanism of fracture formation on the trailing edge of the displaced landslide.The results show the following: ①Rainfall is the dominant factor of landslide deformation. Landslide deformation causes the landslide body to produce cracks and form rainfall infiltration channels, which intensifies rock fragmentation and weak layer mudification and reduces landslide stability; besides, concentrated and continuous rainfall can destabilize landslides. ②By comparing the predicted value of the model with the surface monitoring data, it is feasible to take annual rainfall as the controlling factor in the medium- and long-term landslide prediction model and help to improve the prediction accuracy of landslides. ③Pushing landslide trailing edge cracks consist of landslide pushing displacement and geotechnical body compression. In this paper, the compression creep model is introduced to calculate the crack width and compare it with the monitoring data. This shows that the compression creep model is suitable for this type of slope, and the average deformation modulus of the geotechnical body is obtained by applying the backpropagation of the geotechnical body creep compression model. Thus, we judge the degree of rock fragmentation, which provides a reference for landslide stability analysis and subsequent engineering management.
- Xinpu Xia'ertai landslide /
- deformation mechanism /
- rainfall driven landslide /
- landslide prediction /
- creep compression model /
- tensile crack

HTML全文

图 1 下二台滑坡平面图

Q₄^ml.第四系人工堆积层; Q₄^dl.第四系坡积层; Q₄^al+pl.第四系冲洪积层; Q₄^del.第四系滑坡堆积层; J₁z.下侏罗统珍珠冲组; T₃xj.上三叠统须家河组

Figure 1. Plan of Xia′ertai landslides

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图 2 下二台滑坡典型剖面1-1′图

Figure 2. Typical profile 1-1′ of Xia′ertai landslide

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图 3 下二台滑坡地表变形特征(f中a~e代表上图a~e在f中的位置)

Figure 3. Surface deformation characteristics of Xia′ertai landslide

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图 4 下二台滑坡裂缝宽度与降雨量关系

Figure 4. Relationship of fracture width and rainfall of Xia′ertai landslide

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图 5 下二台滑坡一级滑体监测点位移曲线

Figure 5. Displacement curve of the monitoring point of the first grade slide of Xia′ertai landslide

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 下二台滑坡二级滑体监测点位移曲线

Figure 6. Displacement curve of the monitoring point of the second grade slide of Xia′ertai landslide

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图 7 2015-2021年下二台滑坡平均位移速率曲线

Figure 7. Average displacement rate curve of Xia′ertai landslide in 2015-2021

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 8 GPS07日位移速率曲线与降雨量及库水位变动速率关系

Figure 8. Relationship of the daily displacement rate curve with precipitation and reservoir water level variation rate at GPS07

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 9 下二台滑坡一级滑体SU-4模型下拟合值(预测值)与观测值对比

Figure 9. Comparison between the predicted value and measured value of the first grade slide, Xia′ertai landslide under SU-4 model

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图 10 岩土体压缩计算模型

h为岩体垂向厚度；B为裂缝宽度；β为滑面倾角；σ为压缩应力；L为滑体长度；dx为单宽的微分单位；l为滑坡的某分条长度；dl为滑体宽度

Figure 10. Calculation model diagram of rock and soil compression

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表 1 下二台滑坡累积位移与库水位相关系数

Table 1. Correlation coefficient between the cumulative displacement and reservoir water level of the Xia′ertai landslide

阶段	月份	累计位移与库水位相关系数r
阶段	月份	GPS07	GPS01
缓慢下降阶段	12	-0.133 0	-0.077 2
	1	0.303 4	0.143 7
	2	0.129 5	0.092 5
	3	-0.095 0	-0.158 5
	4	-0.349 5	-0.197 5
快速下降阶段	5	0.218 4	0.050 6
快速下降阶段	6	0.396 4	0.117 7
低水位波动阶段	7	0.195 8	0.107 4
低水位波动阶段	8	0.182 4	0.065 2
快速上升阶段	9	0.009 9	0.132 6
快速上升阶段	10	0.144 0	-0.165 7
稳定阶段	11	0.161 5	0.226 7

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表 2 下二台滑坡一级滑体GPS05样本数据

Table 2. Sample data at GPS05 of the first grade slide, Xia′ertai landslide

年份	累计降雨强度系数	观测位移/mm	预测位移/mm
2017	3.07	1 005	1 024
2018	3.56	1 175	1 142
2019	4.26	1 297	1 310
2020	5.36	1 587	1 587
2021	6.39	1 903	1 858

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 GPS13监测点至LF38裂缝间岩体分段压缩量计算表

Table 3. Rock section compression calculation table between GPS13 and LF38

分段i	平均垂直厚度h_i/m	分段长x_i/m	容重γ/(kN·m^-3)	黏聚力C/MPa	内摩擦角φ/(°)	岩层倾角β/(°)	弹性模量E/MPa	分段压缩量B_i/mm
1	5.12	8.0	26	4.8	13.35	14	8.77×10⁴	0.04
2	8.03	8.0	26	4.8	13.35	14	8.77×10⁴	0.10
3	10.95	8.0	26	4.8	13.35	14	8.77×10⁴	0.20
4	13.81	8.0	26	4.8	13.35	14	8.77×10⁴	0.32
5	16.54	8.0	26	4.8	13.35	14	8.77×10⁴	0.47
6	19.50	8.0	26	4.8	13.35	14	8.77×10⁴	0.65
7	22.78	8.0	26	4.8	13.35	14	8.77×10⁴	0.87
8	25.50	8.0	26	4.8	13.35	14	8.77×10⁴	1.11
9	27.36	8.4	26	4.8	13.35	14	8.77×10⁴	1.38
10	27.52	4.0	26	4.8	13.35	14	8.77×10⁴	1.52
累计压缩量								6.67

下载: 导出CSV

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