Meteorological early warning criterion for rainfall-induced landslides in Huanggang City, Hubei Province
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摘要:
黄冈市是湖北省汛期地质灾害频发区之一, 地质灾害类型以滑坡为主, 其中75%为降雨型滑坡。通过统计分析黄冈市近10年滑坡与降雨的相关关系, 在考虑黄冈市地质灾害易发性分区基础上, 研究黄冈市降雨型滑坡的降雨阈值, 利用逻辑回归模型建立滑坡发生的概率预测模型, 再针对不同等级易发区提出对应的气象预警判据。最后以历史降雨及其滑坡事件检验预警判据的合理性与可信度。结果表明, 所建立的气象预警判据在时间尺度上由以往依托气象部门的中长期预警精细到了24 h的短临预警, 在空间尺度上确定了不同等级易发区的降雨型滑坡气象预警判据。预警准确率大幅提升, 显著提高了黄冈市降雨型滑坡气象预警精度, 可为临灾转移提供精细化的技术指导, 有效降低降雨型滑坡灾害带来的生命财产损失。
Abstract:Huanggang is one of the areas with frequent geological disasters in the flood season in Hubei Province. The main types of geological disaster are landslides, accounting for 75% of rainfall-induced landslides. Therefore, this paper statistically analyzes the correlation between rainfall and landslides in Huanggang City over the last 10 years, studies the rainfall threshold of rainfall-induced landslides in Huanggang City based on considering the prone zoning of geological disasters, establishes the effective rainfall model of landslide occurrence by using the logistic regression model and then puts forward the corresponding meteorological early warning criterion for different prone zone areas. Finally, the rationality and reliability of the early warning criterion are tested by historical rainfall and landslide events. The results show that the meteorological early warning criterion established significantly improves the accuracy of meteorological early warning for rainfall-induced landslides in Huanggang City, provides refined technical guidance for disaster transfer, and effectively reduces the loss of life and property caused by rainfall-induced landslides.
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图 1 黄冈市近10年的年均降雨量分布图
Figure 1. Distribution map of average rainfalls of ten years in Huanggang City
图 2 黄冈市近10年的月均降雨量直方图
Figure 2. Distribution map of monthly average rainfall of ten years in Huanggang City
图 3 黄冈市降雨型滑坡与月降雨量相关性图
Figure 3. Correlation between rainfall-induced landslides and monthly rainfall in Huanggang City
图 4 黄冈市滑坡数量与不同天数累计降雨量相关性图
Figure 4. Correlation between cumulative rainfall and landslide number in Huanggang City
图 5 黄冈市滑坡前7 d-当日降雨量阈值统计
Figure 5. Statistics of rainfall threshold value from the last seven days to the current day in Huanggang City
图 6 黄冈市2016年6月19日有效降雨量及当天滑坡分布(a)和预警等级分布(b)
Figure 6. Effective rainfall and landslide distribution(a), and early warning level distribution(b) on June 19, 2016 in Huanggang City
图 7 黄冈市2016年7月1日有效降雨量及当天滑坡分布(a)和预警等级分布(b)
Figure 7. Effective rainfall and landslide distribution(a), and early warning level distribution(b) on July 1, 2016 in Huanggang City
表 1 黄冈市降雨型滑坡前7 d降雨量-当日降雨量阈值统计
Table 1. Statisticals of the rainfall threshold of rainfall-induced landslides from the last seven days to the current day
易发性等级区 降雨量阈值公式 诱发滑坡的当日降雨量/mm 诱发滑坡的前7 d降雨量/mm 低易发区 y=-0.096 8x+68.426 68.426 706.880 中易发区 y=-0.197 4x+56.699 56.699 287.229 高易发区 y=-0.225 6x+32.096 32.096 142.270 极高易发区 y=-0.202 1x+28.400 28.400 140.524 
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表 2 黄冈市4 d累计降雨量模型计算结果统计
Table 2. Statisticals of the calculation results of the four-day cumulative rainfall model in Huanggang City
拟合优度检验 -2对数似然 考克斯-斯奈尔R2 内戈尔科R2 31.902 0.492 0.656 判断准确率 判断不发生灾害的准确率/% 判断发生灾害的准确率/% 综合准确率/% 90.9 87.0 88.9 分项统计量 B值 显著性检验 是否满足(＜0.05) 当天 0.053 0.003 √ 前1天 0.024 0.046 √ 前2天 0.030 0.037 √ 前3天 0.028 0.012 √ 常量 -3.939 0.019 √
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表 3 黄风市5 d累计降雨量模型计算结果统计
Table 3. Statistical of the calculation results of the five-day cumulative rainfall model in Huanggang City
拟合优度检验 -2对数似然 考克斯-斯奈尔R2 内戈尔科R2 31.809 0.493 0.657 判断准确率 判断不发生灾害的准确率/% 判断发生灾害的准确率/% 综合准确率/% 90.9 87.0 88.9 分项统计量 B值 显著性检验 是否满足(＜0.05) 当天 0.054 0.003 √ 前1天 0.024 0.062 × 前2天 0.030 0.036 √ 前3天 0.017 0.129 × 前4天 0.004 0.757 × 常量 -4.067 0.003 √
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表 4 黄冈市不同等级易发区回归模型
Table 4. Partition regression model of different grades of susceptibility in Huanggang City
易发性等级区 逻辑回归公式 准确率/% 中易发区 $ P=\frac{\exp \left(0.022 R_0+0.018 R_1+0.013 R_2+0.012 R_3-3.599\right)}{1+\exp \left(0.022 R_0+0.018 R_1+0.013 R_2+0.012 R_3-3.599\right)}$ 79.3 高易发区 $ P=\frac{\exp \left(0.033 R_0+0.023 R_1+0.021 R_2+0.012 R_3-2.939\right)}{1+\exp \left(0.033 R_0+0.023 R_1+0.021 R_2+0.012 R_3-2.939\right)}$ 82.9 极高易发区 $ P=\frac{\exp \left(0.037 R_0+0.025 R_1+0.016 R_2+0.011 R_3-2.375\right)}{1+\exp \left(0.037 R_0+0.025 R_1+0.016 R_2+0.011 R_3-2.375\right)}$ 83.2 注：P为预测滑坡发生概率；R0为滑坡发生的当日降雨量，Ri(i=1, 2, 3)为滑坡发生前第1, 2, 3 d的降雨量
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表 5 不同概率条件下滑坡发生的当日降雨量统计
Table 5. Statistics of daily rainfall required for landslides under different probability conditions
易发性等级区 不同滑坡发生概率的当日降雨量/mm 20% 40% 60% 90% 中易发区 100.58 145.16 182.02 263.46 高易发区 47.05 76.77 101.32 155.64 极高易发区 26.72 53.23 75.15 123.57
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表 6 黄冈市降雨型滑坡气象预警判据分级
Table 6. Classification table of meteorological early warning criterion for rainfall-induced landslides in Huanggang City
易发性分区 预警等级 预报降雨级别R/mm 小雨 中雨 大雨 暴雨 大暴雨 (0，10) [10，75) [25，150) [50，300) ≥100 中易发区 蓝色预警 前3 d累计有效降雨量(ΣR/mm) (0，112) (0，102) (0，87) (0，62) (0，12) 黄色预警 [112，162) [102，152) [87，137) [62，112) [12，62) 橙色预警 [162，210) [152，200) [137，185) [112，160) [62，110) 红色预警 ≥210 ≥200 ≥185 ≥160 ≥110 高易发区 蓝色预警 (0，55) (0，45) (0，30) (0，5) — 黄色预警 [55，90) [45，80) [30，65) [5，40) — 橙色预警 [90，123) [80，113) [65，98) [40，73) [0，23) 红色预警 ≥123 ≥113 ≥98 ≥73 ≥23 极高易发区 蓝色预警 (0，32) (0，22) (0，7) — — 黄色预警 [32，64) [22，54) [7，39) [0，14) — 橙色预警 [64，95) [54，85) [39，70) [14，45) — 红色预警 ≥95 ≥85 ≥70 ≥45 ≥0 注：R为预测未来24 h降雨量；——为无预警等级
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